A Chance to Do History Better: Prague, Not Yet Munich
We can still avoid WWIII but only if Europe protects Donetsk
“I got the impression that here was a man who would not deliberately deceive a man he respected.”
—Neville Chamberlain’s diary, September 1938
The shambolic performance in Alaska by Donald Trump, and the subsequent reporting on the meeting’s contents, brings our current moment into sharp relief.
There is a clear precedent for the strategy Putin is employing on Donald Trump, embodied in Neville Chamberlain’s disastrous three meetings with Hitler in 1938 over the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia. Moreover, the military realities on the ground in Ukraine and the demands being made by Putin should center the world’s attention on a specific meeting in Prague after Hitler and Chamberlain met on September 15th in Berchtesgaden—a meeting which sealed Czechoslovakia’s and Europe’s fate. We have a chance to do history better.
The Fortress Belt Is Sudetenland
Ukraine has invested enormous resources in building a “Fortress Belt” across Donetsk since 2014, a well-fortified defensive system running through towns like Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, Kostiantynivka, Pokrovsk, and Myrnohrad.
“It’s not just trenches, it’s a deep, layered defence with bunkers, anti-tank ditches, minefields, and industrial areas built into the terrain. The area includes dominant heights, rivers, and urban zones that make it extremely hard to capture”
Elina Beketova, fellow at the Centre for European Policy
The fortress belt protects key logistics hubs and city corridors that connect to the Ukrainian rear. Holding it buys time and space for reinforcing other lines. The Institute for the Study of War warns that ceding this belt would allow Russia to avoid costly assaults and renew offensives on more favorable terms, without lasting security.
But based on the results of Trump’s meeting in Alaska, Zelenskyy would be forced to give up the Fortress Belt. According to the Financial Times:
Vladimir Putin has demanded Ukraine withdraw from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions as a condition for ending Russia’s war but told Donald Trump he could freeze the rest of the frontline if his core demands were met. The Russian leader made the request during his meeting with Trump in Alaska on Friday, according to four people with direct knowledge of the talks.
In exchange for Donetsk and Luhansk, Putin said he would freeze the frontline in the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, where his forces occupy large swathes of land, and to not launch new attacks to take more territory, according to three of the people familiar with the talks. Putin made it clear that he had not dropped his core demands to “resolve the root causes” of the conflict, which would essentially end Ukraine’s statehood in its current form and roll back Nato’s eastward expansion.
But the Russian president is prepared to compromise on other issues, including territory, if he is satisfied that the “root causes” are addressed, according to a former senior Kremlin official.
The “root cause” of Putin’s illegal invasion, according to himself, is the very independence of Ukraine as a sovereign state. To any Ukrainian or close observer, it is clear this is non-negotiable. Putin will not stop until he has full control of Ukraine. Everything else is a performance, exactly of the kind Hitler put on for Chamberlain.
After the first meeting at Berchtesgaden on September 15th, 1938, Hitler made a demand nearly identical to Putin’s, essentially: “Just give me Sudetenland, and I won’t go any further in Czechoslovakia.” However, just like the Fortress Belt, the Sudetenland contained the majority of the Czech defenses. It was a fortified line built up with the specific intention of holding off a Nazi invasion
At the Berchtesgaden meeting, which did not include Czechoslovakia, Chamberlain did not agree to Hitler’s terms but said he would take them back to his own Cabinet, the French, and the Czechs—and set up another meeting to discuss. Chamberlain then traveled to Prague.
The Monday White House Meeting Is Prague
After the “summit” yesterday in Alaska, Trump is mirroring Chamberlain after Berchtesgaden. Trump said at the 12-minute press appearance that there was “no deal” but it would be in “Zelenskyy’s hands.”
Trump followed it up with this “Truth” today, which sets up the possibility of another display of ignorance in the White House on Monday to match the debacle in February.
Crucially, Trump changed his stance from before the meeting by dismissing the idea of a cease fire in favor of a final “Peace Agreement”—which puts more pressure on Zelenskyy, whose population is deeply weary after 3 1/2 years of war.
Similarly, after Berchtesgaden, Chamberlain went to Prague, to meet with Czech President Edvard Beneš about Hitler’s demands. Despite Beneš not being invited to the meeting with Hitler or having any influence on the “negotiations,” the British and the French pressured Beneš into accepting the deal. As Chamberlain said to Beneš: “If war broke out, Czechoslovakia would be left to her own devices.” In his memoirs, Beneš recalled: “They did not come to persuade us. They came to dictate.“
This is the mistake that Europe must learn from, and avoid repeating by any means necessary.
“We must not sacrifice Paris to save Prague”
—French Prime Minister Édouard Daladier, 1938
Two years later, Daladier was convicted of treason by the Vichy French government and sent to Buchenwald concentration camp.
Avoiding WWIII
Donald Trump is no Neville Chamberlain, who, however misguided, was motivated to avoid another world war. Trump is just doing this to distract from his Epstein problems and to try and collect a Nobel Peace Prize. He is as gullible as he is corrupt—and as easy to manipulate as he is amoral.
Trump’s only understanding of the history of the Nazis appears to be what he learned from Hitler’s speeches. It is hard to believe that Trump would understand Chamberlain’s mistakes even if they were presented to him. But that doesn’t mean the rest of the world has to play along this time.
If there is not a massive, global response to unify to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty, and its territorial integrity—especially Donetsk and the Fortress Belt—it will be almost impossible for Zelenskyy to maneuver. If the Fortress Belt falls, so will Ukraine; it’s just a matter of time. And if Ukraine falls, WWIII will surely follow.
If there is weakness, or equivocating on Putin’s territorial demands by Europe, Putin will only be emboldened to make even more demands, just as Hitler did.
Zelenskyy is a historic leader. He is no Edvard Beneš. However, he cannot do this alone. He must emphasize and clarify that Putin’s “root cause”—the sovereignty of Ukraine—is not on the table. And he must refuse to legitimize any “freeze” without strong guarantees of security and territorial integrity.
Europe must, as it has started to do, solidify with one voice around Ukraine, especially Donetsk. And it must send as much funding and military aid as possible now, before any negotiations.
The rest of us should understand what we’re looking at here—a near-identical scenario to what turned out to be an opportunity to prevent WWII. This was, like so many others that could have led away from catastrophe, a road not taken, in favor of cowardice and appeasement.
For many Americans this is a particularly challenging moment, a time of having to root against our own president, and our own government, who seem determined to go down the road taken by Chamberlain. Nevertheless, Ukraine is a more democratic country than America right now, on the front lines against the 21st century’s Hitler. If we do not stand up for Ukraine now, Europe will be next.
The script is written, the roles are cast, and the play has started. Will we have the strength to end the theater—this time?
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Brilliant. Shared.
This is a test. Do we want to live free? Or not?
Russia and Putin are Mordor. Who do we stand with?